【摘要】 本文根据九寨沟水文站逐月流量和前期逐月74项环流因子、北太平洋格点海温,遴选出相关性较高且稳定的因子作为备选因子,利用逐步多元回归方法再次剔选预报因子,建立预报模型。对1966—2012年汛期各月的流量进行拟合和检验,预报结果可为白水江流域梯级电站水资源调度提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Stable factors with high relatively correlation are selected as alternative factors according to monthly flow capacity of Jiuzhaigou Hydrological Station,former stage monthly 74 circulation factor and lattice sea temperature of North Pacific Sea in the paper. Multiple stepwise regression equation is utilized for re-electing predictors,and forecast model is set up.Flow capacity of all months during flood seasons from 1966 to 2012 is fit and checked,and the forecast results can provide reference for water resources dispatching of cascade power stations in Baishuijiang River Basin.更多还原