【摘要】 2017年8月,特朗普政府宣布对中国发起"301调查",中美经贸关系再次面临严峻考验。为了分析此次调查的未来走向,本文构建了基于历史对比与博弈论"两位一体"的分析框架。首先,通过历史对比分析,对历次美国对华"301调查"的背景、过程以及结果进行剖析,探讨历次"301调查"的实质和共通性。以此为基础,进而运用博弈论模型分析特朗普政府对华"301调查"最有可能的解决方式,包括双边磋商或诉诸多边贸易规则解决。最后,针对本文结论提出应对策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 On August 18, 2017, the office of the U.S. trade representative announced to initiate 301 investigation towards China. In order to predict the trend of 301 investigation, the paper tries to analyze the "301 investigation" towards China by using the method of historical comparison, and concluded that all the 301 investigation were resolved in the form of negotiation although each one has its own background and process. Then, the paper analyzes the realistic rationality of the negotiation between China and the United States in the "301 investigation" with game theory, and predicts that the solution of 301 investigation in 2017 will eventually be resolved by negotiation or resort to WTO dispute settlement procedure. Finally, the paper puts forward the policy suggestions from negotiation, retaliation and WTO framework.更多还原