【摘要】 农村地区抗震防灾能力较弱,系统分析农村震害并研究其抗震防灾能力,是制定可行的抗震防灾措施的基础和前提。文章采用模型评估法和GIS空间分析技术,预测了山东农村震时人口伤亡和经济损失,并分析了其空间分布;构建了农村抗震防灾能力综合评价模型;分析了抗震防灾能力与震时综合损失的空间耦合关系。结果表明:山东农村震时人口伤亡和经济损失空间分布存在明显差异,郯庐地震带、聊考地震带及周边区域震时损失较重;山东农村抗震防灾能力空间分布差异明显,其中东营、滨州和威海的较强,而临沂、菏泽和烟台的较弱;抗震能力较弱且震时损失较重的乡镇主要位于鲁南和鲁西南地区,抗震防灾形势严峻;抗震能力较强且震时损失较轻的乡镇主要位于济南、东营和威海等市,抗震防灾形势相对乐观。更多还原

【Abstract】 The ability of earthquake resistance and disaster prevention in rural areas is relatively weak. It is the foundation and premise of making feasible earthquake prevention measures to analyze the earthquake damage in rural areas and to study its earthquake resistance and disaster prevention ability. This paper adopts model evaluation method and GIS spatial analysis technology,predicts the earthquake casualties and economic losses in Shandong rural areas,analyzes their spatial distribution,constructs a comprehensive evaluation model for earthquake resistance in rural areas; and analyzes the spatial coupling relationship between earthquake-resistance capacity and comprehensive losses at the time of earthquake. The results show that there is a significant difference in the spatial distribution of the population casualties and economic losses during the earthquake in rural Shandong,and the losses in the Tanlu earthquake belt,the Liaokao seismic belt and the surrounding areas are heavier; the difference of spatial distribution of earthquake resistance and disaster prevention ability in rural areas of Shandong is obvious,Dongying,Binzhou and Weihai have stronger rural disaster prevention and disaster prevention capabilities,Linyi,Heze and Yantai have weak rural disaster prevention and disaster prevention capabilities; the villages and towns with weak earthquake resistance and heavy losses during the earthquake are mainly located in south and southwestern Shandong, and theearthquake disaster prevention situation is severe; the villages and towns with strong earthquake resistance and relatively low losses during the earthquake are mainly located in cities such as Jinan,Dongying and Weihai, and the earthquake-resistant and disaster-relief situation is relatively optimistic.更多还原