【摘要】 本文对LEO大型小卫星星座系统在轨爆炸解体事件发生概率进行评估,并分析了爆炸解体事件对邻近轨道空间碎片环境的影响。基于哈工大空间碎片环境工程模型SDEEM2015研究成果,结合公开发表的OneWeb星座相关资料,本文侧重对大型小卫星星座爆炸解体事件产生的大尺寸空间物体对星座中其他卫星,以及邻近轨道飞行器构成的威胁进行评估。分析结果显示,由于大型小卫星星座中卫星数目众多,为保障系统整体不发生爆炸解体事件,单个卫星爆炸概率必须严格限制。一旦星座中某卫星发生爆炸解体事件,解体初期解体碎片集中在母体轨道平面;在轨道摄动因素的影响下,几年后解体碎片将逐步扩散到其他轨道平面,对整个星座系统构成威胁。OneWeb星座运行轨道高度较高,生成的大尺寸解体碎片寿命可达几十年甚至几百年。星座中卫星轨道分布集中,单个卫星发生爆炸事件生成的解体碎片群与星座中其他卫星发生二次碰撞解体事件的频率接近0. 002次/年,这将有可能导致二次碰撞的发生,造成邻近轨道空间难以逆转的链式反应,甚至导致雪崩效应。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the next few years several large constellation systems are to be deployed in low Earth orbit(LEO). Unlike the previous space operations, these LEO constellation projects will add hundreds of payloads into the same orbital zone within few years. Each payload undertakes the risk of explosion, leading to a possible rapid increase on the collision probability among the large space objects. Collision event may produce even larger group of space debris, which is likely to result in the clutter phenomenon. The analysis of the effect of the constellation system on-orbit explosion on the orbital debris environment is necessary for the space debris environment forecast. Based on the announced information of the OneWeb constellation design, this paper mainly focuses on the effect of the constellation satellite breakup events on the whole constellation system and orbital debris environment. In this state, the upper-stages used are ignored. Our analysis reveals that due to the large number of satellites in the constellation systems, the explosion rate for each satellite has to be kept extremely small to make sure no explosion event happens during mission life time. In case of explosion event happens, the breakup fragments mainly threat the satellites on the parent orbital plane in the first five years, then gradually scatter to all longitude range, presenting threat to all objects in the altitude range. In order to keep the space debris in the nearby orbital zones from getting clustered, it is extremely important to improve the satellite reliability to lower the explosion rate of each payload.更多还原