【摘要】 为定量分析内陆河干旱区流域土地利用/覆被变化过程和流域水文循环二者的响应关系,选择新疆开都河流域为研究区,设置了多种土地利用/土地覆被的变化情景,并通过SWAT模型对流域地表径流进行了模拟,结果表明校准期模型的相对误差、纳什效率系数、线性拟合系数分别为-20.13%、0.78、0.82,验证期分别为-18.94%、0.81、0.85,均达到了建立模型所需的标准,模拟结果可信。假定气候条件不变,设定不同土地利用/覆被变化情景进行模拟,结果表明:(1)当流域草地及林地退化为裸地或人工表面时,开都河流域月均流量变化最大,且丰水期流量增大,枯水期流量减小,其中6月流量增大39.55%,10月减小55.35%;(2)当流域林地退化为草地时,流域月均流量整体变化不大,其中4月增加最多,增加1.46%,12月流量减小最多,减小1.05%;(3)当流域裸地及人工表面逐步恢复为草地与林地时,流域月均流量大多减小,其中2月减小最多,为8.00%,10月流量增大最多,为1.01%。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to study the relationship between Land use/cover change( LUCC) and hydrological cycle process,the SWAT model was structured and the annual runoff in Kaidu River was simulated under different land use/cover scenarios. The simulation results show that there is a high accuracy between the simulated runoff and the actual runoff. The RE is-20.13% in calibration period( 1980-1991),the R2 is 0.82 and the Ens is 0.78. The results in the verification period( 1992-2001) are close to the calibration period. The simulation has a high adaptability. The climate condition was supposed unchangeably. The simulations show that a) assuming grassland and forest gradually transform into bare land and artificial surface,the average monthly runoff changes greatly which would increase in flood season and decrease in dry season with 39.55% in June and 55.35% in October respectively; b) assuming the forest land( slope <25°) become into grass land,there would be a little change with increase of 1.46% in April and decrease of 1.05% in December; c) assuming the bare land and artificial surface of the basin change into grassland and woodland,average monthly runoff would reduce in most months,with decrease of 8. 00% in February and increase of 1.01% in October.更多还原