【摘要】 感潮河段是河流与海洋的过渡段,河道水位受上游径流和河口潮位共同影响。为给河道及堤岸整治提供科学的决策依据,考虑引发漫堤的洪水、潮位、风浪和河道特性等因素,运用蒙特卡罗法结合水力计算,建立感潮河段漫堤风险率计算模型,并以我国沿海某河流感潮河段堤防为例进行实例研究。结果表明:考虑潮位不确定性,漫堤风险率有所提高,堤段越靠近入海口,漫堤风险受潮位影响越明显,适当加高堤防可有效降低感潮河段漫堤风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 Tidal reach is the transition between river and ocean,and the water level is affected by upstream runoff and estuary tide level. In order to provide scientific basis for river course and embankment regulation,the detailed process to calculate risk probability of dike overtopping considering the factors such as flood,tide,wind wave and channel characteristics based on Monte Carlo method combined with the hydraulic calculation were presented in this paper. A tidal river dike in southeast China was taken as an example. The results show that considering the uncertainty of the tidal level,the overtopping risk probability has increased considerably. The nearer the dike is to the estuary,the stronger impact of tide to the risk probability of dike overtopping. And appropriate heightening embankment is effective in reducing the overtopping risk.更多还原