【摘要】 水库汛期超蓄调度是解决汛期水库大量弃水和汛后水资源短缺矛盾的有效途径。水库超蓄调度有一定的防洪风险,通过分析洪水过程、洪水来临时间和调度规则这三个不确定因素对超蓄调度的影响,以调洪最高水位和下游最大叠加流量为评价指标,综合考虑大坝和下游防洪风险,建立了水库超蓄调度风险分析模型。采用随机模拟方法对模型进行求解,得到超蓄后大坝和下游的防洪风险率,作为超蓄调度风险决策的依据。实例分析表明:随着超蓄水位的提高,下游防洪风险增大,大坝防洪风险呈先升后降趋势,选用合适的调度方案可有效降低超蓄风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 It is an effective and risky way to solve the contradiction between the large amount of abandoned water and the shortage of water resources in flood season. In this paper,the influence of three uncertainties including flood process,flood time and operating rules on over-storage was analyzed. Considering the risk of dam and downstream flood control,a risk analysis model was established. The highest water level of reservoir and the maximum downstream outflow were taken as the evaluating indexes. The stochastic simulation method was used to solve the model. The study results show that increasing the water level will increase the risk,and the use of appropriate flood regulation rules can reduce the risk.更多还原