【摘要】 [目的/意义]旨在为预测市场研究与应用提供参考。[方法/过程]以Web of ScienceTM核心合集数据库为数据源,利用统计分析、对比分析、共现分析、社会网络分析、可视化分析等文献计量学研究方法,从多个角度对预测市场论文发文量变化、主要研究力量、主要研究领域、研究热点与前沿等进行计量分析。[结果/结论]在国内外预测市场研究领域,美国一直处于绝对的优势地位,我国研究基础比较薄弱;商业与经济、计算机科学一直是预测市场的主流研究领域;预见、信息聚合、决策支持、群体智慧是预测市场的主要研究热点与前沿。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Purpose/significance]The paper is to provide reference for research and application of prediction market. [Method/process]The paper takes Web of ScienceTMas data source, with the methods of statistical analysis, contrastive analysis, co-occurrence analysis, social network analysis and visualized analysis, makes a quantitative analysis on articles in prediction market from several perspectives, such as trend of publications, institutions, research fields, research hotspot and front. [Result/conclusion]In the field of prediction market research at home and abroad, the United States had been in an absolute dominant position, while the research base in China is relatively weak. In addition, business and economy, computer science has been being in the main stream of prediction markets, forecasting, information aggregation, decision support, wisdom of crowds are the main research hotspots and fronts.更多还原