【摘要】 【目的/意义】为研究舆论事件反转的机理,本文提出了考虑信息和组织氛围影响的群体观点演化模型,对近年来频繁发生的网络舆论反转现象进行仿真模拟。【方法/过程】以经典Hegselmann-Krause模型为基础,建立信息和组织氛围影响的可计算模型并嵌入到网络社会舆论的演化过程中,运用MATLAB编程实现仿真实验再现"女大学生踹女童"事件,验证了模型的科学性和有效性。【结果/结论】信息是影响网络舆论反转的关键因素,反转信息往往是导致网络舆论反向演化的驱动力;控制信息披露能在一定程度上改变舆论的演化方向;信息敏感度和组织归属感是影响网络舆论偏向性程度的重要因素。更多还原

【Abstract】 【Purpose/significance】The paper proposes an opinion dynamics model considering the effects of information and organization atmosphere to simulate and study the mechanism of the public opinion reversal phenomenon which frequently occur in recent years.【Method/process】Based on classic Hegselmann-Krause model, the calculable model of information and organization atmosphere and influences is constructed and is embeded into the public opinion evolution process, and then uses MATLAB to run the simulation experiment, taking the real case"female undergraduate kicks the fouryear-old girl"to further validate the scientificity and effectiveness of the model.【Result/conclusion】Information is the key factor leading to public opinion reversal phenomenon, acting as the driving force to public opinion’s inversion, hence controlling the information disclosure can change its evolution process to a certain extent, while information sensitivity and organization commitment are significant factors influencing the degree of public opinion bias.更多还原