【摘要】 新型农业经营主体的培育要以农户意愿为基础。以农户成为种植大户的意愿为例,基于粮食主产区的农户样本数据,运用Logit模型与联立方程组模型,分析农机社会化服务在不同作物和不同生产环节间的差异,探讨农机社会化服务对农户成为新型农业经营主体意愿的影响因素。结果表明,样本农户中,40.27%的农户有成为种植大户的意愿,农户在耕地、播种/插秧和收获三大生产环节的农机服务利用比例分别为66.55%、50.68%和63.82%,小麦种植户的农机服务利用比例较高,水稻和玉米种植户成为种植大户的意愿较高。综合来看,耕种收综合农机服务对农户成为种植大户的意愿有显著正向影响;分环节来看,机收环节的农机服务对农户成为种植大户的意愿有显著正向影响;分作物来看,与小麦相比,水稻和玉米种植中的农机服务对农户成为种植大户意愿的影响更加明显。控制内生性后,农机服务对农户成为种植大户意愿的影响仍然正向显著。此外,生产决策者的健康状况、种植面积对农户成为种植大户的意愿也有显著正向影响。因此,提出积极引导农户成为种植大户、鼓励扶持农户利用农机社会化服务和提升薄弱环节与重点作物农机服务质量等政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The cultivation of new agribusiness entities should rely on the willingness of classical farmers. Based on a survey data of households in the main grain producing areas in China, and applying the Logit model and the simultaneous equation models, this paper analyzed the difference of the socialized services of agricultural machinery among different crops and different production sectors, and examined the influence of machinery socialized services on farmers’ willingness to become new agribusiness entities. Results show that, among the surveyed farmers, 40.27% of them were willing to increase their production scales, and 66.55%, 50.68% and 63.82% of them adopted agricultural machinery socialized services in the sowing, tillage and harvest sectors, respectively. Wheat farmers have a higher adoption rate of agricultural machinery socialized services, rice and corn farmers have a higher willingness to adopt scaled production. In general, the integrated utilization of agricultural machinery socialized services, which includes sowing, tillage and harvest sectors has a significantly positive impact on farmers’ willingness to adopt scaled production. From the perspective of different production sectors, the adoption of agricultural machinery socialized services in the harvest sector has a significantly positive impact on farmers’ willingness to adopt scaled production. From the perspective of different crops, compared with wheat, the utilization of agricultural machinery socialized services in rice and corn has a higher positive effect on farmers’ willingness to adopt scaled production. After controlling for endogeneity, the impact of machinery socialized services on farmers’ willingness to adopt scaled production is still significant. Additionally, the health of the decision-makers and the plant area have significant positive impacts on farmer’s willingness. In summary, this paper suggests to guide farmers to adopt scaled production actively, to encourage farmers to use socialized services, and to enhance the quality of socialized services in key crops and key production sectors.更多还原