【摘要】 以湖南省14个市州为研究对象,利用1981-2010年湖南省97个地面气象站点的气象资料选取致灾因子进行低温雨雪冰冻过程评估,根据自然灾害风险原理获取湖南省统计年鉴中社会经济资料、农林业发展情况以及地理信息等资料从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性以及抗灾能力4个方面构建湖南省冰冻灾害风险区划综合评估模型,采用层次分析法、不等权重加权综合评价法以及ArcGIS制图技术等方法对低温雨雪冰冻灾害进行风险评估与区划.结果表明,冰冻灾害极高风险区和高风险区主要集中在湘中地区的邵阳市、湘潭市和衡阳市以及益阳市和岳阳市,湘西州、永州市、娄底市和长沙市处于中等风险区;怀化市、株洲市和郴州市处于低风险区;张家界市和常德市处于极低风险区.湖南省低温雨雪冰冻灾害风险评估与区划结果可以为湖南省抗灾减灾工作和预防灾害提供参考.更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,14 cities of Hunan Province were selected as the research object,and the meteorological data of 97 meteorological stations in Hunan Province from 1981 to 2010 were used to select the hazard factors to evaluate the freezing process of low temperature rain and snow.Which is according to the natural disaster risk principle,social and economic data,agroforestry development and geographical information.The comprehensive evaluation model of frozen disasters risk zoning in Hunan Province was constructed from four aspects:hazard factors,environmental sensitivity of disaster,vulnerability of disaster and disaster resilience.The risk assessment and zoning of low temperature rain and snow disaster were carried out by using the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)method,unequal weight comprehensive evaluation method and ArcGIS mapping technology.The results show that the extremely high risk zone and high risk zone of frozen disasters are mainly concentrated in Shaoyang city,Xiangtan city and Hengyang city,as well as Yiyang city and Yueyang city,Xiangxi state,Yongzhou city,Loudi city and Changsha city in the medium risk area;Huaihua city,Zhuzhou city and Chenzhou city in a low risk area;Zhangjiajie city and Changde city were in a very low risk area.The risk assessment and zoning results of low temperature,rain and snow disaster in Hunan Province can provide reference for the disaster prevention and mitigation work and the disaster in Hunan Province.更多还原