【摘要】 中国目前的生育政策处在由一孩到两孩的重要转折期,而流动人口规模大,育龄人口比重大,生育观念处于转变期,生育行为和生育意愿对中国总体人口变化影响巨大。利用2016年天津市流动人口动态监测数据,应用家庭决策的分析方法,IV Tobit和IV Ordered Probit模型回归发现,流动人口生育率已经降至低水平,全面两孩政策能对年轻家庭产生正向影响,一孩为男性的家庭选择不要两孩的比例更高,女性生育意愿较低。要想保证全面两孩政策贯彻落实,政府需要完善配套公共医疗卫生设施,加强法律法规制度建设,保障妇女生育及就业权益。更多还原

【Abstract】 The current China’s fertility policy is in an important turning point from one child to two children. For the rural-urban migrants,because of their large scale,the large proportion at the childbearing age and the fertility concept in transition period,their fertility behavior and willingness have a significant influence on China′s population. However,few of the existing literature considers the endogeneity and analyzes the fertility behavior of migrant population under the new second-child policy. By using the 2016 Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey in Tianjin,the methodology of household decision and IV Tobit and IV Ordered Probit regressions,we find that,for the migrant population,(a)their fertility rate has declined;(b)Second-Child policy can have a positive effect on young families;(c)the households whose first child is a boy tend to choose not to have the second child;(d)women have a lower fertility willingness. In order to ensure a better implementation of the second-child policy,the government should ameliorate the public health facilities,strengthen the legal system and protect women’s reproductive and employment rights.更多还原