【摘要】 基于SEEA 2012体系提出符合中国国情的生态系统生产总值(GEP)核算体系,结合调研数据,通过灰色预测模型,对漳江口红树林保护区2004—2014年和2015—2019年的生态系统生产总值进行核算与估算。结果表明:漳江口红树林保护区的红树林面积逐年增加,2004—2014年生态系统生产总值保持上升趋势,生态系统更加稳定;2015—2019年漳江口红树林保护区生态系统生产总值有明显上升趋势。更多还原

【Abstract】 ⑴ Background——The stability of ecosystems is closely related to the surrounding social economy. The gross ecosystem production( GEP) can calculate the value of regional ecosystem production within a period of time,which is an effective technical means. However,the calculation system of China’s gross ecosystem production value is currently not perfect. It is urgent to establish an accounting system that conforms to China’s national conditions.⑵ Methods——Based on the SEEA 2012 system,this paper proposes an ecological account framework for mangrove nature reserves in line with China’s national conditions. The gross ecosystem production of reserves is estimated by mineral and energy resources, land resources, soil resources, timber resources, aquatic resources,water resources and other biological resources. Taking the Zhangjiangkou estuary mangrove national nature reserve as an example,the gross ecosystem production value of the Zhangjiangkou estuary mangrove national nature reserve from 2004 to 2014 is estimated,and the GEP value of the Zhangjiangkou estuary mangrove national nature reserve from 2015 to 2019 is predicted based on the grey prediction model.⑶ Results——On one hand,Establishing the SEEA 2012 accounting system to calculate the GEP value of Zhangjiangkou estuary mangrove national nature reserve from 2004 to 2014 shows that the GEP value of Zhangjiangkou mangrove wetland reserve maintains an overall upward trend from 2004 to 2014. Among them,mineral resources and energy resources are decreasing year by year. Other biological resources and water resources have increased greatly. Land resources,soil resources,aquaculture and timber production have steadily increased,and ecosystems have become more stable. On the other hand,based on the grey prediction method,it is estimated that the ecosystem production value of the Zhangjiangkou estuary mangrove national nature reserve in 2015—2019 will have a clear upward trend. In the next five years,the annual growth rate of GEP in the Zhangjiangkou estuary mangrove national nature reserve will remain at 8. 73%. In 2019,the total GEP of the Zhangjiangkou estuary mangrove national nature reserve will be nearly four times that of 2004.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——On one hand,with the government’s in-depth implementation of mangrove wetland protection,the ecological resources of the Zhangjiangkou estuary mangrove national nature reserve have grown steadily. The government should continue to strengthen the protection of mangrove wetland and play its ecological service function. However,the mineral resources and energy resources in Zhangjiangkou reserve are decreasing year by year. The government should strengthen the protection of mineral resources and energy resources,increase the development and utilization of new energy,and vigorously promote the development of new energy. On the other hand, through the establishment of SEEA 2012 system and its application in Zhangjiangkou mangrove reserve,comprehensive consideration of the ecological resources of the reserve can provide advice and suggestions for further planning and management of the reserve. However,the established SEEA2012 system is not well connected with the accounts of the international accounting system,and it does not scientifically reflect the linkage between the development of the ecological environment and the development of the country’s comprehensive strength. Further research is needed.更多还原