【摘要】 利用1981—2015年沈阳地区7个气象站的日观测数据,通过CLIGEN(Climate Generater)天气发生器模拟沈阳地区日降水序列数据,并统计模拟日降水量、月降水量、年降水量及年最大日降水量,利用平均值、标准差、偏度及峰度对CLIGEN天气发生器模拟的沈阳地区降水进行适用性评价。结果表明:CLIGEN天气发生器对沈阳地区日降水量、月降水量和年降水量平均值的模拟效果较好,模拟降水量的平均相对误差绝对值(Mean Absolute Relative Error,MARE)分别为2.1%、1.3%和3.3%,年最大日降水量的模拟精度稍差。对于降水最大值方面,CLIGEN天气发生器对沈阳地区日最大降水量和年最大降水量的模拟效果较差,模拟的日最大降水量和年最大降水量相对误差的最大值分别为-27.2%、18.3%。GLIGEN天气发生器能较好地模拟沈阳地区的月降水量和年降水量,t检验、F检验和K-S检验均表明,模拟的日最大降水量与年最大日降水量仅康平站达到极显著水平。从总体模拟效果来看,CLIGEN天气发生器能较好地模拟沈阳地区平均降水的统计特征。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using daily weather data in Shenyang from 1981 to 2001, the daily precipitation data were generated by the CLIGEN model. The daily,monthly,annual,and annual maximum daily precipitation values simulated and measured were compared. The applicability of the model was evaluated using mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis statistic data. The results show that the CLIGEN model generates better simulation results for daily,monthly and annual precipitation amounts,and the corresponding MARES( Mean Absolute Relative Error) are2. 1%,1. 3%,and 3. 3%, respectively. However, the simulation accuracy of annual maximum precipitation amount is slightly worse. As for the extreme values in precipitation, the simulation results of daily and annual maximum precipitation amounts are not good. The maximum errors of daily and annual maximum precipitation amounts reach to-27. 2% and 18. 3%, respectively. The CLIGEN model can better simulate the monthly and annual precipitation.Based on t,F and K-S tests, it indicates that only Kangping station reaches the very significant level in the daily and annual maximum daily precipitation amounts. In general, the CLIGEN model can better simulate the statistical characteristics of precipitation in Shenyang region.更多还原