【摘要】 2018年1—9月,我国社会消费品零售总额稳中放缓,农村消费品零售总额增速持续高于城镇;由于受到贸易摩擦和政策调整的影响,汽车消费、建筑及装潢类商品下滑明显;2018年前3季度网上零售总额持续增长,服务业持续繁荣,其中旅游业增长较快,文化体育产业快速发展。针对2018年"消费疲软"问题,本文从社会总消费、汽车消费、居民消费支出3个方面进行了辨析,认为我国目前尚未出现明显的"消费疲软"问题。对于未来走势,本文认为2018年4季度和2019年我国居民消费需求仍将平稳增长,其中新能源汽车消费有望成为亮点;从消费结构持续升级、居民消费信心强预期高的角度看,我国消费市场仍有潜力。但与此同时,也要高度关注高房价引发的居民债务快速增加带来的挤出效应,以及收入差距和财富差距不断扩大导致的抑制消费总需求的问题。政府应继续深化供给侧改革,严格监管消费市场环境,建立健全消费信用体系;调整收入分配结构,促进农业农民增产增收,加大精准扶贫力度,提高贫困人口消费水平;加强监管国内旅游消费市场,营造良好氛围,引导海外消费回流;同时应关注老年消费,大力发展老年消费产业。更多还原

【Abstract】 From January to September 2018, China’s total retail sales of consumer goods slowed steadily, the growth rate of retail sales of rural consumer goods continued to be higher than that of towns, and the decline in automobile consumption, construction and decoration commodities was significantly due to trade frictions and policy adjustments; in the first three quarters of 2018, the total online retail sales continued to grow, in which tourism is growing faster and the cultural and sports industry is developing rapidly. With regard to the problem of "weak consumption" in 2018, this paper analyzes it from three aspects of total social consumption, automobile consumption and residents. consumption expenditure, and holds that there is no obvious signs of "weak consumption" in our country at present. In the fourth quarter of 2018 and in 2019, this paper holds that the consumption demand of our residents will grow steadily, in which the consumption of new energy vehicles is expected to become the bright spot, and from the point of view of the continuous upgrading of consumption structure and high expectation of residents ’ consumption confidence, China’s consumer market still has potentially rising trend. However, more attention should be paid to the crowding out effect of the rapid increase in resident debt triggered by high house prices, as well as to the problems of curbing aggregate demand caused by the widening income gap and wealth gap. The Government should continue to deepen the supply-side reform, strictly supervisethe consumer market environment, establish and improve the consumption credit system, adjust the income distribution structure, promote the income of farmers, increase the intensity of precision poverty alleviation, improve the consumption level of the poor, strengthen the supervision of the domestic tourism consumer market, create good enviorment, and guide the return of overseas consumption; at the same time should pay attention to elderly consumption, vigorously develop the elderly consumer industry.更多还原