【摘要】 本文采用2010-2014年中部74个地级市的统计数据,基于回归模型,对城镇化、产业结构与电力消费的之间的关系分别做了实证研究。结果表明:单独分析城镇化与电力消费的关系,得出城镇化率提升1%,电力消费提升1.77%,这表明城镇化进程会促进电力消费的增加;对第二产业、第三产业与电力消费的关系进行实证分析,得出二产对电力消费的作用大于三产,二产业仍是电力消费的主体。基于系统资源约束理论的约束变迁分析,文章进一步分析了城镇化后期拉动电力发展的动力转化机制,为电力发展规划提出更有意义的预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the statistical data of 74 prefecture level cities in Central China in 2010-2014 years, this paper makes an empirical study on the relationship between urbanization, industrial structure and electricity consumption based on regression model. The results show that the separate analysis of the relationship between urbanization and power consumption, the urbanization rate increased by 1%, electricity consumption increased by 1.77%, which indicates that the process of urbanization will promote the increase of power consumption; Empirical Analysis on the relation between the second and the third industry and power consumption, a second effect on the electricity consumption of more than three production. Power consumption is the main industry in second. According to the constraint change analysis of the system resource constraint theory, the paper further analyzes the power transformation mechanism of pulling the power development in the later stage of urbanization, and puts forward more meaningful prediction for the power development planning.更多还原