【摘要】 以昆山中荣金属制品有限公司粉尘爆炸案为例,引入多米诺效应的概念,综合考虑环境和安全风险,构建了一套粉尘爆炸多米诺效应的定量风险评估方法。构建多米诺事故链,基于贝叶斯网络计算事故概率,运用大气扩散模型SLAB计算大气污染后果,等效TNT法估算冲击波超压的影响,进而对事故综合风险进行定量评估。结果表明,由于多米诺效应,高层级单元发生事故的概率比固有概率增加29%~79%,环境和安全风险影响显著增大,最高综合风险值为一次事故的67.39倍。更多还原

【Abstract】 Taking environmental and safety risks into consideration, a quantitative risk assessment method was constructed and the concept of domino effect was introduced to analysis a dust explosion which happened at Zhong Rong Metal Products Limited Company in Kunshan. A domino chain was constructed, and then the Bayesian network was applied to receive the probability of domino accidents. The atmospheric simulation model SLAB and equivalent TNT was used for consequence analysis. The results showed the probability of dust explosion in the high-level units increased significantly, which was 29% ~79% more than the inherent probability. The impact of environmental risks and safety risks has increased significantly, and the highest comprehensive risk value was 67.39 times more than initial accident.更多还原