【摘要】 通过建立理论模型,用典型投资者和典型投机者分别代表投资和投机行为,分析在不同收益率条件下的机会成本比较及其可能的交易决策。对2005年至2016年上证综指、深证成指、沪深300的统计分析结果发现,上述市场一直被投机者群体主导,理由是资本利得收益率长期高于股息收益率和银行存贷款利率。较高的资本利得收益率受到市场最大历史波动率的影响和决定。真正以股息回报为投资策略的价值型投资者相对较少。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper firstly set up a theoretical model, using single typical investor and speculator to represent investors and speculators respectively. We tried to compare the opportunity costs and possible trading decisions under different return conditions. Secondly, by statistically analyzing SH000001 Index, SZ399001 Index, HS399300 Index from 2005 to 2016, we found out that, markets represented by those indexes are of Speculator Market, because return on capital gains in most of time are higher than return on dividend and interest. Higher return on capital gains is determined by maximum historical market volatility ratio. There are only a small portion of invests who are real value investors, seeking dividend as return.更多还原