【摘要】 本文基于2003~2012年宁波市下辖区县的面板数据,结合面板计量模型与分区域回归、逐年回归方法,分析了宁波市城市建设用地扩张的主要驱动因素,得到以下主要结论:(1)经济总量、人口和产业结构调整系数每增长1%,建设用地规模会增加0.35%、0.52%和–1%。(2)不同区域城市建设用地扩张的主导驱动因素有所差异。发展程度相对较高的中心区、余姚、慈溪和奉化,人口增长因素用地扩张的作用最为明显(系数分别为4.880,1.383,3.036和0.583),产业结构调整因素的作用次于人口增长(系数分别为1.235,0.307,0.145和–0.242),而经济发展因素则显得越来越不显著;而发展程度相对较低的象山县和宁海县引起城市扩张的主要驱动因子是经济发展因素(系数分别为0.413和0.195),人口和产业结构调整的驱动力相对较弱。(3)逐年回归的结果表明,经济发展因素的驱动作用随时间推移越来越大(系数从2005年的–1.531到2012年的1.459);人口增长因素的驱动作用则缓慢下降(系数从2005年的1.249到2012年的0.044),在2008年后已小于经济发展因素的贡献力度;产业结构系数与建设用地增长暂时为负相关,且负相关性越来越弱(从2004年的–5.312到2012年的–0.589)。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper analyzes panel data from 2003–2012 to identify the factors driving the expansion of construction land in Ningbo city;it uses panel data,regional-level,and year-by-year regression models.The results indicate the following:(1) For each 1% increase in the size of the economy,urban population,and industrial structure adjustment coefficient,the amount of construction land increased by 0.35%,0.52% and –1%,respectively.(2) The factors driving the expansion of urban construction land differed across regions.In more highly developed areas such as Yuyao,Cixi,Fenghua and the downtown area,population growth was the most obvious driving factor with coefficients of 4.880,1.383,3.036 and 0.583,respectively,in those areas.Here,the impact of industrial structure adjustment was lower than that of population growth(with coefficients of 1.235,0.307,0.145 and –0.242),while economic development was an increasingly insignificant factor(with coefficients of –0.302,0.071,0.037 and 0.297).On the other hand,economic development was the most important factor for the expansion of construction land in relatively less developed areas such as Xiangshan and Ninghai counties with coefficients of 0.413 and 0.195,respectively.Here,population growth(with coefficients of –0.538 and 0.132) and industrial structure adjustment(with coefficients of –0.097 and 0.067) were comparatively weaker driving factors.(3) The results of the year-by-year regression indicate the increased impact of economic development as a driving factor(from –1.531 in 2005 to 1.459 in 2012).The influence of the population growth factor slowly declined(from 1.249 in 2005 to 0.044 in 2012) and from 2009 on was less influential than the economic development factor.The industrial structure coefficient remained negative and its influence diminished from year to year(from –5.312 in 2004 to –0.589 in 2012).更多还原