【摘要】 近年来,较多学者研究了国家治理体系中的经济制度对金融稳定的影响,而对国家治理体系中的非经济制度对金融稳定的影响缺乏严密的理论分析与实证检验,这可能导致无法全面认识金融稳定的影响因素,难以对促进金融稳定的国家治理体系建设提出有针对性的政策建议。本文首先建立数理模型分析了国家治理体系完善对金融稳定的影响机理,然后使用全球214个国家1996—2017年的121万余个数据,实证检验了国家治理体系中的非经济制度对金融稳定的影响。研究发现,完善的国家治理体系不但可以促进金融机构的稳定与宏观经济的健康发展,而且能够缓解外部风险的影响,促进实体经济融资与发展。因此,政府应当努力推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化建设,利用完善的国家治理体系来构建健康的金融环境,防范金融风险和维护金融稳定。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper first constructs a macroeconomic model theoretically to illustrate the reasons for the differentiated effects of state governance system establishment on financial stability. Then, based on the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicator(WGI) and IMF Financial Soundness Indicator(FSI),empirical evidence contributes to this literature by employing Regression Discontinuity Design(RDD) methodology and a unique data set of 1.21 million data collected from 214 countries during the period from 1996 to 2017,which is consistent with our theoretical predictions. The main results show that excellent state governance system exerts a significant and positive impact on financial stability. We also find consistent evidence that it not only could boost financial institutions stability and macroeconomic sound development, but alleviate the influence of external risks and enhance the real economy financing improvement. We extract some implications for the government authorities to promote state governance system establishment and modernization. Therefore, the government should propose some ways forward to construct a systematically complete, scientifically regulatory and effectively operating institutional system to maintain financial stability and prevent financial risks accordingly.State Governance System is a series of systematic institutions, including economics, political, cultural, social and ecological civilization etc, which is a set of coordinated and related national institutions. Most of the scholars believe that improved state governance system will bring up positive effectiveness of financial stability. While the prior research focus on economic institutions, like monetary policy, regulation policy, fiscal and taxation policy and industry policy etc, lack of the overall theoretical research of political institutions, such as political stability, government effectiveness, corruption control, voice and responsibility, regulation level and law etc. So lack of overall research of state governance system may lead to unknowing about impact of financial stability and more difficult to raise policy suggestions about improving financial stability system establishment.It is difficult to make theoretical research about the impact of political institutions on financial stability with two main reasons. First, it is hard to find convincing substitute variables for institutions and financial stability. So there is no way to establish model to analyze path to the impact of state governance system on financial stability and there exist doubts of the channel of the path. The second reason is it is hard to get long-term believable sample data about political institution, which is different from short-term and obvious impacts of economic institutions. And without the long-term sample data, the research result cannot be convincing and cannot rule out occasional political events impacts. The World Bank established WGI indicators in 1996 and made objective evaluation about state governance system establishment of different countries in the whole world. The indicators range from-2.5-2.5,of which-2.5 is the worst situation and 2.5 is the best situation based on 0 as a critical point.We have made some combinations with state governance indicators and financial stability based on six indicators, such as voice and accountability, political stability, absence of violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law and control of corruption. The result shows that the better state governance quality the lower the bad loan ratio and the higher the domestic controllable loan ratio. These two pictures have shown the same result that the higher the state governance quality, the higher the financial stability. The result is persuasive because we employ the data from 1996 to 2017 in 214 different countries, which arouses our curiosity: What is the logical mechanism about the relationship between the state governance system establishment and financial stability? In which way the state governance system establishment could promote financial stability? How to maintain financial stability through state governance system establishment?更多还原