【摘要】 为平抑风电的出力波动,同时考虑到风电与水电具有良好的互补性,提出风电与梯级水电站的互补优化运行策略。鉴于风速的不确定性,将风电出力视为随机变量,从兼顾风电-水电互补运行的稳定性与经济性、保证后续发电能力的角度出发,建立基于机会约束的多目标随机优化模型。采用引入余弦型迁移模型、差分进化算法的变异策略以及动态非均匀变异算子的改进生物地理学优化算法(Biogeography-based Optimization,BBO)求解优化模型,并结合随机模拟技术求解机会约束。通过基于风电预测与径流预测的分时段动态滚动决策,来不断修正风电与水电的后续运行方式,进一步提高互补运行的可靠性。以一个大型风电场和一个三级梯级水电站互补运行为例验证了所提模型、算法以及策略的可行性和有效性。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to stabilize the wind power output fluctuation, considering that the wind power and hydropower have good complementarities, this paper proposes a complementary optimal operation strategy of wind power and cascade hydropower station. In view of the wind speed uncertainty, the output of wind power can be regarded as a random variable. From the perspective of the stability and economy of wind power-hydropower complementary operation and ensuring subsequent power generation capacity, a multi-objective stochastic optimization model based on chance constraint is established. The cosine migration model, the mutation strategy of differential evolution algorithm and the dynamic non-uniform mutation operator are introduced into the improved Biogeography-Based Optimization(BBO) algorithm to solve the optimization model, and stochastic simulation technique is used to solve the chance constraint. Through time-division dynamic rolling decision based on wind power prediction and runoff forecast, the subsequent operation modes of wind power and hydropower is constantly revised to further improve reliability of complementary operation. Taking the complementary operation of a large-scale wind farm and a three-stage cascade hydropower station as an example, the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model, algorithm and strategy are verified.更多还原