【摘要】 为加强LNG船舶水上运输安全,提高LNG船舶通航环境风险评价的客观性,运用云模型对LNG船舶通航环境进行评价,实现评价指标定性与定量间的转换.结合Delphi法确定评价体系中各级指标的云权重与云模型,并利用MATLAB软件进行模拟仿真得到云图,进而分析LNG船舶通航环境中不同因素的风险等级,得到的评价结果为通航安全管理提供决策依据.研究结果表明,云模型能够减少评判过程中出现的随机性和模糊性,降低由主观臆断引起权重分配的不合理性,使评判结果更加合理、可信.更多还原

【Abstract】 To enhance water transport safety of the LNG ship and improve the objectivity of risk assessment of LNG ship navigation environment,the cloud model is used to evaluate the LNG ship navigation environment and to realize the conversion between qualitative and quantitative evaluation indexes. Combined with the Delphi method,cloud weight and cloud model of indexes at all levels in the evaluation system are determined. Simulation is carried out by using MATLAB software and cloud chart is obtained. And then we analyze the risk level of different factors in LNG ship navigation environment to get the evaluation results and provide decision-making basis for navigation safety management. It is testified that the cloud model can reduce the randomness and fuzziness in the process of evaluating and the irrationality caused by the subjective assumption of weight distribution,which makes the results more reasonable and credible.更多还原