【摘要】 由于海岛资料相对匮乏,对其气象条件的分析工作较为零散,对海岛气候分布特征尚缺乏清晰的认识。本文利用浙江及周边岛屿26个站点的观测资料,通过均值、标准差和相关系数等统计方法定量评估了NCEP/NCAR-Reanalysis 1(NCEP-1),ERA-Interim和JRA-55三种再分析气温数据在浙江周边海岛的可信度。结果表明:3种再分析数据均能够重现近地面气温的年循环特征,但再分析数据得到的冬季气温偏高,而在夏季,NCEP-1相对于其他2种再分析数据重构的气温显著偏低。从相关系数、标准偏差等多个统计指标来看,ERA-Interim再分析数据对浙江周边岛屿气温的再现能力较好。积温的分析结果表明,基于ERA-Interim计算的26个测站的平均积温和标准差分别为5 818和498℃,与实测5 728和324℃最为接近,JRA-55的平均积温偏差最大,NCEP-1标准差偏差最大。从26个测站积温的空间分布来看,基于ERA-Interim得到的积温空间分布基本上重现了浙江周边岛屿积温带受纬度和海陆分布影响的特征;JRA-55再分析数据次之,因三门健跳至岱山的部分海岛上积温比实测资料偏高,从而导致积温南北分布与实测不一致;而NCEP-1存在明显的偏差,在27°～28°N区积温偏低,在29°～30°N区积温却偏高,甚至超过了6 000℃,这使得根据NCEP-1得到的积温带南北分布与实测差别较大。整体而言,针对气温的分析研究,ERA-Interim再分析数据对浙江周边岛屿地区具有较好的适用性,可以作为地表温度的替代数据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Understanding of the meteorological conditions and climatic characteristics on the islands is still insufficient due to lack of observations data.In this study,surface air temperature(SAT)in three reanalysis datasets,NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1(NCEP-1),ERA-Interim,and JRA-55,are evaluation by comparing with observations data at 26 stations on adjacent islands of Zhejiang province.The results show that all of three reanalysis datasets can reproduce the annual cycle of SAT,although the reanalyzed SAT is warmer in winter and colder in summer than observed SAT.Spatially,three reanalysis datasets underestimate the SAT in coastal area but overestimate temperature on offshore islands.By evaluating correlation coefficients,standard deviation of SAT and accumulated temperature that defined as the sum of temperatures greater than or equal to 10℃,it indicates that the ERA-Interim can better reproduce SAT observed on adjacent islands of Zhejiang province than the other two reanalysis datasets.Therefore,the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset can be used as an alternative dataset for observed SAT on the islands near Zhejiang province.更多还原