【摘要】 为科学评价山东省及其地级城市道路交通安全状况,基于相关社会经济因素构建了致死率、平均每起事故死亡人数、十万人口死亡率、万车死亡率、十亿元GDP死亡率、百公里道路死亡率等6个道路交通安全评价指标.首先利用灰色聚类法对山东省历年道路交通状况进行纵向评价,得出山东省交通安全状况在不断地改善.然后采用灰色关联法,对2015年山东省各个城市交通安全水平进行横向综合评价.结果表明,各个城市的交通安全水平和单项交通安全评价指标差异很大.新方法更合理,且计算简便,可为道路交通安全治理提供参考.更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to scientifically evaluate the regional road traffic safety situation of Shandong province over past years and its prefecture-level cities in 2015, based on relevant social and economic factors, six relative evaluation indicators are formed including ratio of death in traffic injure, mortality per traffic accident, mortality per 100 thousand people, mortality per 10 thousand vehicles, mortality per billion GDP, mortality per hundred kilometer road. Firstly, the gray clustering theory is used to analyze traffic safety developing trend in Shandong province over the years. The result shows that the level of traffic safety in Shandong province is improving, but the traffic safety level is not too high. Then, the gray correlation method is used to evaluate the road traffic safety level among different cities in Shandong province. The result shows that the level of traffic safety and individual traffic safety evaluation index vary widely among different cities. Some cities have both good traffic safety evaluation index and bad traffic safety evaluation index, so urban traffic indicators are not balanced.The new method is more reasonable, and the calculation is simple, which can provide a reference for road traffic safety management.更多还原