【摘要】 传统的基于用地仿真法的空间负荷预测方法对各种环境因素的考虑并不完善,而且对于这些环境因素,评价的指标越多,模糊规则也就越多、越复杂,已经不能够满足电力规划实际需求。本文提出了一种规范化的可以直接考虑各种实际地块建设状态要素的饱和负荷密度指标选取新方法。该方法提出了"负荷成熟度"、"负荷达成率"及"建成投产率"的概念,考虑城市发展和改造的不确定性,把区域负荷指标与区域发展定位及市政建设进度情况相结合,指标选取紧密关联现状实际情况。据此,进一步形成负荷指标的评价优选模型,以模型方法对城市地块饱和负荷指标值进行迭代计算,并对异常指标进行负荷指标修正,最终得到最符合全区实际发展远景的饱和负荷预测指标值。更多还原

【Abstract】 The traditional method of space load forecasting based on land simulation method is not perfect for all kinds of environmental factors. Moreover,for those environmental factors,the more indicators are evaluated,the more fuzzy rules are,and the more complex it is,which has been unable to meet the actual demand of electric power planning. In this paper,a new method is proposed to normalize the saturated load density index,which can directly consider the factors of the construction state of various actual plots. The method of " load maturity", " a load rate" and " completion rate" concept,Considering the uncertainty of urban development and transformation,the regional load index and regional development orientation and municipal construction progress are combined,and the index selection is closely related to the actual situation. Accordingly,an evaluation and optimization model for the load index is further formed,The iterative calculation of the urban land saturation load index value is performed by the model method,and the load index of the anomaly index is corrected. Finally,the most consistent with the actual development prospect forecast index of saturated load is obtained.更多还原