【摘要】 通过分析位于复杂地形的南湫、黑崖子和干河口风电场测风塔70 m高度的风速、风向分布特征及风速预报的误差特性,基于卡尔曼滤波方法建立了预报风速的订正模型,对预报风速误差进行了订正。结果表明,南湫、黑崖子和干河口风电场的有效风速时数占全年风速时数的百分比分别达90. 9%,85. 06%和82. 93%;各风电场有效风速时数存在显著的时间差异,夏、秋季有效风速时数最大;南湫、黑崖子和干河口分别可达29. 65%,27. 19%和23. 24%;风速日变化特征差异明显,夏季南湫、黑崖子和干河口风速日变化分别呈多峰多谷（或双峰双谷）、单峰单谷、双峰单谷的分布特征;夏到秋季,南湫主导风向为东南风,黑崖子由偏东风转换为偏西风,干河口主导风向稳定为东风或偏东风。风速阵性特征有明显的季节差异,9月黑崖子、干河口风速的阵性变化较6月强,南湫风速的阵性变化6月比9月强。北京快速更新循环数值预报系统（BJ-RUC）对复杂地形风电场风速预报能力存在局限性,主要表现在预报风速的阵性变化相对较小、风速偏大;经卡尔曼滤波方法订正后,数值模式对风速的阵性预报能力增强,预测风速威布尔分布的形状参数和尺度参数逼近实况风速的分布参数,实况风速和预测风速相关系数最大可提高约15%;预报风速的绝对误差、均方根误差也得到了改善,可降至1. 30 m·s^-1和1. 66 m·s^-1。更多还原

【Abstract】 The distribution characteristics of wind speed and direction at 70 m and prediction errors of forecast wind speed of three typical wind farms（i.e.,Nanqiu,Heiyazi,and Ganhekou） with complex topographic conditions in Gansu were analyzed.A correction model based on Kalman filtering was established to correct wind speed forecasted by Beijing Rapid Updated Cycling Analysis and Forecast System（BJ-RUC）.Results showthat:The percentage of effective wind speed hours of the total year is 90.9% in Nanqiu,85.06% in Heiyazi,and82.93% in Ganhekou,respectively.Significant differences of the percentage of effective wind speed hours exist in different seasons for each wind farm.Specifically,percentages of effective wind speed hours are higher in summer and autumn,and can reach up to 29.65%,27.19%,23.24% in Nanqiu,Heiyazi and Ganhekou,respectively.In summer,the diurnal variation of wind speed in Nanqiu has two or three peaks while in Heiyazi is characterized by a single peak and in Ganhekou is performed as double peaks and single valley.From summer to autumn,the prevailing wind direction in Nanqiu is southeast,the leading wind direction in Heiyazi shifts from east to west and the dominant wind direction in Ganhekou persistently keeps easterly persistently.The gustiness of wind speed varies from season to season.The Weibull distribution indicates that the wind speed in september is more volatile than wind speed in June in Heiyazi and Ganhekou.On the contrary,wind speed in June is more volatile than that in september in Nanqiu.Limitations in forecasting wind speed by BJ-RUC are mainly two aspects: one is that the gustiness of prediction wind speed is relatively weaker; The other one is that the wind speed forecasted by model is relatively larger than measured one.However,with the correction by Kalman Filtering method,the capability of forecasting gustiness of wind speed based on numerical weather model has been improved; Weibull distribution shape and scale parameters of the corrected wind speed are approximation to those of measured wind speed.The correlation coefficient of observed speed and corrected speed can be increased by 15%; the absolute error and root mean square error have also been improved significantly,which drop to 1.30 m·s^-1 and 1.66 m·s^-1.更多还原