【摘要】 基于1999—2016年吉林省的统计数据,运用碳排放系数法测算18年来吉林省农业现代化进程中农业碳排放量和碳排放强度,并运用LMDI模型分析农业碳排放的影响因素。结果表明:(1)吉林省农业现代化进程中,碳排放总量呈明显上升趋势,年平均增速为2.83%,碳排放强度呈下降趋势。(2)农业碳排放结构以农业机械化和农业化学化为主,两者占比达90%以上,是吉林省农业现代化进程中的主要碳排放来源。(3)农业生产效率、产业结构和劳动力规模因素在一定程度上抑制了吉林省农业现代化进程中碳排放量的增加,而农业产出规模是导致农业碳排放量上升的驱动因素。为此,要推进吉林省农业现代化进程,必须协调好农业经济发展与碳排放的关系,走低碳农业发展道路。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the statistics from 1999 to 2016 in Jilin,carbon emission and its intensity of the past 18 years have been measured by the coefficient method of carbon emission in the process of agricultural modernization,as well as analyzing the influential factors by using LMDI mode.The results show that:First,while in the process,the total has the apparent increasing trend by 2.83% per year,but decreasing for its intensity;Second,the structure of agricultural carbon emission is dominated by mechanization and chemicalization,and both of them occupied more than 90%,also the main carbon emission origins in the process;Third,production efficiency,industrial structure and labor force scale,in a manner,restrict the carbon emission increase in the process,however,production scale is the driving factor for total increase.Therefore,better coordinate the relation between economic development and carbon emission,as well as decreasing the carbon emission is necessary for promoting agricultural modernization.更多还原