【摘要】 针对由原材料供应商、制造商、仓库及终端市场组建的四级供应链网络,考虑中期运作过程中的需求不确定性及其导致的风险管理问题,研究了基于价值绩效的供应链销售与运营计划。采用经济增加值(EVA)指标度量供应链运作绩效,并将不确定市场需求描述为一系列离散情景。在供应链网络物流运作约束和运作过程中产生的财务约束基础上,建立了同时具有解鲁棒和模型鲁棒性的基于情景的供应链两阶段鲁棒优化模型。最后,进行了数值算例,分析了相关风险系数对供应链运作绩效的影响和解鲁棒与模型鲁棒之间的权衡,并进一步讨论了市场和财务等相关参数对供应链价值绩效的影响。结果表明,基于经济增加值的供应链销售与运营计划鲁棒优化模型能够有效降低运作绩效对不确定需求参数的敏感性,并为决策者避免相关财务绩效受不确定性影响提供事先决策支持。特别地,在某些特定情景下,企业虽然可以获得正利润,但其经济增加值却为负值,说明此时企业不仅未创造价值,反而减损了股东财富。更多还原

【Abstract】 As an important issue in operations management, sales and operations planning(S&OP) has been paid more attention by both business and academy. S&OP is a key business process to match customer demand with supply capability. The main purpose of S&OP is to build bridges between the business or strategic plans and the operational plans which provide the ability for management to strategically direct its business to achieve competitive advantage. To support an effective decision for supply chain manager to achieve value-based performance in the medium term, sales and operations planning based on value performance of a four-stage supply chain network which consists of raw material suppliers, manufacturers, warehouses and terminal markets is studied by considering the demand uncertainty and resulted risk management problem in mid-term operations. First of all, as a metric of measuring the economic value of a company, Economic Value Added(EVA) which includes cost of debt and equity capitals is adopted to evaluate the supply chain operational performance. EVA is defined as supply chain net operating profit after tax minus total costs of invested capital in net operating assets, and which can be used to effectively reflect the supply chain value-creation and value-addition from the perspective of creating shareholder value. Furthermore, a framework of value driver tree is introduced to illustrate the causal relationships between the indicators in operational level and a value-based performance one such as EVA, and a robust optimization formulation is also proposed. Secondly, for the supply chain network considered in this paper, the market demand is assumed to be uncertain and described as a series of discrete scenarios with specific probabilities. To reduce the sensitivity of uncertain demand parameter to a supply chain’s EVA performance, a two-stage linear robust optimization model for supply chain sales and operations planning based on scenarios with both scenario-independent structural variables and scenario-specificcontrol variables is developed by modelling the supply chain revenues and capital expenditures under the logistic constrains and financial ones. Furthermore, solution robustness together with model robustness are also considered by introduce a variance coefficient and a risk-aversion weight in the objective function. At last, some numerical calculations are carried out to analyze the impact of the variance coefficient and risk-aversion weight on the EVA performances of supply chain and the trade-offs between solution robustness and model robustness. Besides, value-based operational performances of supply chain are also discussed with the variation of both market and finance parameters such as maximum demand extension degree, maximum overtime capacity, hurdle rate, bank line credit and seasonal demand amplitude. The results show that the proposed robust optimization model for supply chain sales and operations planning based on economic value added can effectively reduce the sensitivity of uncertain demand to operational performances, and also provide an aforehand decision support for decision-maker to avoid the financial performances from being influenced by uncertainty. Specially, in some specific situations, a company’s EVA performances are negative although the positive profits can be acquired, which means that the company does not create value and detracts the wealth of shareholders.更多还原