【摘要】 本文借鉴圣路易斯联邦储备银行的方法,将法定存款准备金率变动转化为货币乘数固定状态下的基础货币变动,并在此基础上与其他相关货币政策进行整合,汇总成综合货币政策。通过构建修正的抵消系数和冲销系数模型,运用中国2000年1月—2016年12月的数据,估计国际资本流动与货币政策之间的量化关系,同时采用递归系数方法估计其动态趋势。相比已有研究,创新性地纳入法定存款准备金率变动的影响。研究结果表明,忽略法定存款准备金率调整的影响会低估货币政策的冲销程度;基于中国的实证分析发现,中国的国际资本流动程度有限,而中国的货币政策完全,甚至过度冲销了国际资本流动造成的基础货币波动。因此,尽管汇率弹性有限,中国依旧能够维持较高水平的货币政策独立。更多还原

【Abstract】 Employing the method of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, this paper translates the change in the reserve requirement ratio into the change in the monetary base, while the money multiplier remains unchanged. The change in the reserve requirement ratio is combined with the other related monetary policies to construct an integrated measure of monetary policy. This paper then constructs a modified offset and sterilization coefficients model, and adopts the data from January2000 to December 2016 of China to estimate the quantitative relationship between international capital flows and monetary policy, and uses the recursive method to estimate their dynamic change. A major innovation over most previous studies is taking into consideration the effects of changes in the reserve requirement ratio and it turns out that the failure to take changes in reserve requirements ratio into account leads to an underestimation of the degree of sterilization. The results also show that China’s capital flows are quite limited, while China’s monetary policy is able to completely or even over completely sterilize monetary base fluctuations caused by international capital flows. Thus, we find that China has been able to maintain a great deal of domestic monetary policy independence despite a limited degree of exchange rate flexibility.更多还原