【摘要】 2017年,世界经济继续复苏,石化产品需求回升,产能过剩有所缓解,行业利润增加,石化景气指数攀升带动了投资继续增加。全球乙烯生产能力为1.71亿吨/年,较上年增长761万吨/年;消费量为1.54亿吨,比上年增长4.2%。低油价为乙烯裂解装置带来较好的利润水平,特别是东北亚地区。中国乙烯总产能增至2321万吨/年;乙烯当量消费量增速高达10%以上,直接原因是国外经济复苏、国内经济超预期发展,加之国内环保督查等叠加作用。受此影响,中国石化行业整体利润居近年高位。自2018年起,全球以乙烯为代表的石化工业进入产能高速扩张期,预计2018年全球乙烯生产能力将达到1.8亿吨/年左右,石化贸易格局也将发生转变。随着中国石脑油路线乙烯装置投产,预计2018年中国乙烯生产能力将达到2548万吨/年,乙烯当量消费量增速回落至8%左右。2018年石化行业不确定性因素明显增加,主要体现在:石油价格上涨、新增产能大幅释放、贸易摩擦加剧等,这些因素将影响市场需求及企业利润。更多还原

【Abstract】 In 2017, world economy continued to recover, demand for petrochemical products pick up, over production capacity eased a little, profits increased, and industry prosperity index drove investments to rise. The global ethylene capacity was 171 million tons/year with an increase of 7.61 million over the previous year. Meanwhile, the consumption was 154 million tons with an increase of 4.2% over the last year. Low oil prices bring better profitability to ethylene crackers, especially in Northeast Asia. Because of the recovery of world economy and over-expectation development of domestic economy, along with the environmental supervision, China’s total ethylene capacity increased to 23.21 million tons/year in 2017, and the equivalent consumption growth rate was as high as more than 10% during the same period, which makes the overall profitability of petrochemical industry stayed high in recent years. In 2018, the global petrochemical industry, especially ethylene industry, will enter a rapid expansion period and it is expected that the ethylene capacity will reach 180 million tons/year, resulted in changing in terms of petrochemical trade. With the launch of the new ethylene plant based on naphtha route in China, it is expected that the domestic ethylene production capacity will reach 25.48 million tons/year in 2018, and the equivalent consumption growth rate will fall back to about 8%. Meanwhile, the uncertainties also increased significantly in 2018 such as the rise in oil prices, lots release of new production capacity, intensifying trade conflicts, which all would affect the demand and profits of petrochemical industry.更多还原