【摘要】 农村金融发展与农民收入关系一直存在线性与非线性分歧,对此,本文利用断点回归、自回归分布滞后和状态空间模型研究了我国1989~2014年农村金融规模、结构以及效率演变对农民收入的影响。Andrews未知断点检验表明,受第三轮农村金融改革冲击影响,农村金融收入效应在2010年呈现断点,农村金融增量改革提高了农村金融效率但存在政策滞后性;ARDL边界检验证明农村金融发展与农民收入之间存在长期均衡关系,但常系数假设背离了农村金融收入效应动态调整的基准事实;状态空间模型反映出农村金融发展波动较大,不稳定政策阻碍农村金融收入效应的长期机制形成。由此,提出了稳定农村金融政策、重视金融规模扩大、兼顾金融结构调整和金融效率提高、结构性改革是未来方向等相关建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The relationship between rural financial development and farmers’ income has been considerdd as linear or nonlinear.As to this issue,this paper,by using breakpoint regression,auto-regressive distributed lag and state space model studies the impact of rural financial scale,structure and efficiency evolution on farmers’ income from 1989 to 2014 in our country.Results show that the impact of the third round of the rural financial reform causes the rural financial income breakpoints effect in 2010,and incremental reform improves the efficiency of rural finance but the policy lagged;The ARDL boundary test proves that there exists a long-term equilibrium relationship between rural financial development and peasant income,but the constant coefficient hypothesis deviates from the benchmark fact of dynamic adjustment of rural financial income effect.The model of state space reflects the large fluctuation of rural financial development,and unstable policies hinders the long-term mechanism of the rural financial income effect.Therefore,it puts forward some suggestions on stabilizing rural financial policy,emphasizing financial scale expansion,balancing financial structure adjustment,improving financial efficiency and structural reform.更多还原