【摘要】 粮食安全始终是关系国民经济发展、社会稳定和国家自立的全局性重大战略问题。弄清食物安全保障程度、科学测算未来国家食物需求量是制定保障食物安全政策的基础性工作。2015年,我国水稻和小麦供需基本平衡,玉米供大于求,大豆严重依赖进口;棉油糖对外依存度较大,其中食用植物油自给率只有36.9%,棉花87.7%,食糖74.4%;畜禽产品供需基本平衡,奶类需要品种调剂。根据中国人口数量、城镇化率、在外就餐等因素,本文估计2025年、2030年全国粮食消费需求量将达到6.37×10~8 t和6.85×10~8 t,肉类需求量将达到8.1×10~7 t和9.5×10~7 t。为保障我国食物安全和大宗农产品有效供给,提出应加大农业综合生产能力建设、实施节粮战略、强化农业科技创新和完善农业生产补贴制度。更多还原

【Abstract】 Food security has always been a major strategic issue related to national economic development, social stability, and national independence. Clarifying the degree of food security and scientifically estimating the future national food demand are the basic work for formulating food security policies. In 2015, the supply and demand of rice and wheat were basically balanced, corn supply exceeded demand, and soybean was heavily dependent on imports; cotton, oil, and sugar had great dependence on foreign products, of which the self-sufficiency rate of edible vegetable oil was only 36.9%, cotton 87.7%, and sugar 74.4%; supply and demand of livestock products were basically balanced, and milk needs variety regulation. According to factors such as the Chinese population growth, the urbanization rate, and the dining-out habit, this paper estimates that the demand for grain consumption will reach 6.37×10~8 t in 2025 and 6.85×10~8 t in 2030, and correspondingly the demand for meat will reach 8.1×10~7 t and 9.5×10~7 t, respectively. To ensure food security and the effective supply of major agricultural products in China, it is proposed that China should increase the input of comprehensive agricultural production capacity, implement the grain saving strategy, strengthen the innovation of agricultural science and technology, and reform the subsidy system for agricultural production.更多还原