【摘要】 从实力转移入手分析国际秩序转型是学界通行的研究路径,文章尝试将这一研究路径反转,集中关注既有地区安全秩序如何塑造大国崛起进程。研究发现,不同安全秩序下有效缓解崛起困境的核心挑战和战略选择各具特点。均势秩序下的核心挑战是两线或多线同时遭遇制衡,主动维持均势不但可以规避这一核心约束,而且有助于崛起国利用均势瓦解塑造权威秩序,走出崛起困境。霸权秩序下的核心挑战在于主导国强制能力突出,缓解崛起困境的关键是崛起国根据自身实力应邀推动地区均势。权威秩序下,主导国实力和规范优势的双重约束导致缓解崛起困境更为困难。确保核心利益基础上的战略协调一方面可以最大限度管控双重压力,同时可为权威秩序转型(转向均势或霸权秩序)做好准备。这些发现一定程度上丰富了国际秩序转型和崛起战略的理论研究,同时有助于中国探索适应不同周边安全秩序的战略选择。更多还原

【Abstract】 The extant studies on international order transformation mainly concentrate on how rising powers shape a new order.This article aims to reverse the logic of this popular approach,however,by focusing on how the existing regional security order shapes a great power’s rise.The author finds that distinct strategic choices exist under the different types of regional security order which enable rising powers to address the rise dilemma.Within a balance of power order,two-front or multi-front balancing presents the biggest challenge to moderating such dilemma,but proactive maintenance of the balance of power can help avoid this worst case scenario,and also pave the way towards an authority order led by rising powers.The central challenge under a hegemonic order is that of the hegemon’s ample capacity to dictate the regional order.The rising power can address such challenge by shaping the regional balance of power based on its particular capabilities and the assent of regional powers.The combined power and normative advantages that the established power possesses under an authority order,however,make addressing the rise dilemma highly problematic.Strategic coordination,on the basis of ensuring core interests,can,however,optimally manage these dual pressures,and also lead to a transition in the authority order(towards a balance of power or hegemonic order).更多还原