【摘要】 以2007-2016年的省级面板数据为样本,运用门槛模型,实证分析了地方政府性债务与我国经济增长之间的关系。研究表明,地方债务对我国经济的影响具有显著的门槛效应,并存在唯一的门槛值。当地方债务水平低于这一门槛值时,它对经济增长具有积极影响,一旦超出该门槛值,则会抑制经济增长。同时,欠发达地区相较于发达地区而言,地方债务对经济增长的促进作用更显著且强度更甚,其门槛值也更高。一旦地方债务水平超出门槛值,地方债务对经济增长的消极影响也在经济欠发达地区更加明显。因此,"以债务促增长"的经济增长模式是不可持续的,应充分考虑地区特质,因地制宜地管控地方债务,构建起适合我国国情的地方债务控制与风险预警机制,推进存量债务置换,并加强地方债务信息的核算与披露。更多还原

【Abstract】 Taking the provincial panel data from 2007 to 2016 as the sample, this paper conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between the local government debt and China’s economic growth with the threshold model. The findings show that the local debt has a significant threshold effect on China’s economy, and there exists only one threshold value. When the level of the local debt is lower than this threshold value, it has a positive effect on the economic growth; once it exceeds the threshold value, the economic growth would be restrained. At the same time, compared with the advanced regions, the local debt of those underdeveloped regions has an even more significant and stronger impact on the promotion of the economic growth, and the threshold value is also higher.Once the local government debt goes beyond the threshold value, its negative impact on economic growth is also more obvious in the economically underdeveloped regions. Therefore, the economic growth mode of"to promote economic growth with debt"is not sustainable. Instead, the local governments should take adequate considerations of the regional conditions, control the local debt according to the circumstances, establish a local debt control and risk prevention mechanism which is suitable for Chinese conditions, promote the existing debt replacement, and strengthen the checking and disclosure of the local debt information.更多还原