【摘要】 预算增长是公共预算研究和实践中非常重要的问题。预算增长特征的背后是经济变化、社会变迁、政策转型、政府改革和预算制度的共同作用。基于广东省A市(地级市)2008-201 6年1 01个部门预算数据的研究显示:A市的部门预算总支出和项目支出的增长特征均倾向于间断预算模式为主,且项目支出的间断性特征更显著;A市部门预算增长的渐进与间断特征,是在增量预算和零基预算的共同作用下多种因素影响的资源配置结果。因此,要进一步优化地级市部门预算结果,需要增强预算编制的规范性和透明度,提高预算支出标准的科学性;加强政策过程与预算过程的衔接,建立约束有力的预算制度;将绩效理念融入预算管理全过程,全面实施绩效管理。更多还原

【Abstract】 Budget growth is a very important issue in the study and practice of public budgeting.Behind the characteristics of budget growth, it is the combined action of economic changes, social changes, policy transformations, government reforms and budget system. A study of the 2008-2016 budget data of 101 departments in City A, one of the prefecture-level cities of Guangdong province,shows that: the growth characteristics of total expenditure and project expenditure of the department budgets in City A both tend to be dominated by the intermittent budget model, and the intermittent characteristics of project expenditure are more significant; the incremental and the intermittent characteristics of the department budget in City A are the result of the resources allocation influenced by many factors under the joint action of incremental budget and zero-base budget. Therefore, in order to further optimize the budget results of the government departments of prefecture-level cities, it is necessary to strengthen the standardization and transparency of budgeting and to improve the scientificity of budget expenditure standards; to strengthen the linkage between the policy process and the budget process, and to establish a well-restrained budget system; and to integrate the performance concept into the whole process of budget management, so as to implement the full scale performance management.更多还原