【摘要】 基于城市轨道交通外部效应显著,但外部信息量不明确,因而进行有效的外部效应研究对轨道交通可持续发展至关重要。将交通、经济、社会和环境作为轨道交通的影响子系统,构建城市轨道交通外部效应指标体系;设计量化模型计算轨道交通线路所产生的外部效益以表示外部效应的影响程度;基于灰色系统理论建立灰色聚类模型对深圳地铁3号线进行实例分析。研究结果表明:城市轨道交通具有很强的正外部性,主要来源于土地增值;较弱的负外部性,主要来自于建设期间的交通拥堵与沿线商业损失。更多还原

【Abstract】 Urban rail transit have great externality benefit but undefined externality information. Scientific and effective external research is crucial in sustainable development of rail transit. This paper considered traffic, economy, social, environment as the impact systems of urban rail transit. Then, an external effect evaluation system was built and a quantitative model for urban rail transit was further put forward. Finally, based on the grey system theory, the grey clustering model was built to applied to Shenzhen Metro 3. The result shows that positive externality of urban rail transit is great which mainly comes from land increment; weak negative externality because of traffic congestion and commercial losses during construction.更多还原