【摘要】 以北京为例,通过将人口增长动因分解的方式,根据人口增长组分预测2020年人口规模。人口增长动因分解法将北京人口机械增长分为就业驱动、发展机会驱动、公共服务驱动、社会关系驱动等不同动因组分。根据对常住人口的预测(增长动因分解法),再考虑到未统计人口,北京2020年人口规模在3000万～3250万(包括常住人口和未统计人口)。最后,本文指出,常住人口预测对北京这样的世界性城市的规划管理的意义有限,并对控制北京人口增长的措施和效果持有异议,提醒关注人口控制带来的空间蔓延发展及其严重后果,指出市场经济下城市人口增长的不可控性。更多还原

【Abstract】 With Beijing as an example, this paper uses the method of decomposition of driving factors for population growth to predict the population scale in 2020 based on the division of population growth types. The method divides the mechanical growth of population in Beijing into employment driven, development opportunity driven, public service driven, and social relationship driven based on the different driving factors. Regarding the prediction to permanent population(according to the method of decomposition of driving factors for growth) and considering the uncounted population, the population size in Beijing in 2020 will be about 30,000-32,500 thousand(including permanent and uncounted population). In the end, the paper points out that the significance of permanent population prediction is limited to the planning management of a world city like Beijing. Moreover, it disagrees with the measures applied in controlling Beijing’s population and the practical result, and warns about the space sprawl brought about by population control and its serious result, which implies the uncontrollable urban population growth under market economy.更多还原