【摘要】 劳动力的空间自由流动是一个国家长期经济增长的重要推动力。对中国而言,自1978年以来,近40年经济持续高速增长背后的机制是成万上亿的农村劳动力流向城市部门的宏大变迁。随着中国劳动力增量的逐步下降甚至为负,如何盘活农村剩余劳动力促进城乡之间劳动力的流动是我国目前面临的重要挑战。文章基于中国居民收入调查数据库(CHIPS2002和CHIPS2013),从教育的外部性视角系统分析了农村地区教育程度的提高是否会促进当地农民外出就业。研究发现,平均教育程度的增加对外出就业存在两种相反的作用力。首先,农村地区平均教育程度的提高会促进当地企业的发展,进而抑制当地农民外出;另一方面,当地平均教育程度的提高会增强农民工社会网络对农民工外出就业的促进作用,进而促进当地农民外出就业。因此,农村地区平均教育程度对外出就业的影响取决于当地企业的发展水平以及当地的农民工社会网络的强弱。文章最后使用工具变量法等稳健性检验的结果也支持了上述研究发现。文章的政策含义是:农村地区的发展政策可能也要因地制宜。对当地企业发达或有潜力发展乡镇企业的地区,可能提高农村教育和相关技能培训,鼓励农民回乡创业更好;而对其他地区,可以完善农村社会网络,增强乡民联系,以更好地促进农民外出。更多还原

【Abstract】 The rural-urban migration is a key factor in shaping the development of China’s great growth. Recently China has been facing the slowing down of growth of labor force from rural areas, so how to promote the labor rural-urban migration is a new challenge for China. This paper discusses the external effect of rural local education on the migration of rural labors and its mechanisms, and uses the local average education as the proxy of the external effect of education. In fact, we think that the external effect of rural local education has two opposite directions on the rural-urban migration. On the one hand, entrepreneurship is more active in regions with higher education. It implies that the community-level education can promote the development of local business, which will increase the availability of local non-agricultural jobs. Therefore, the local effects of education on the rural-urban migration could be negative, especially in regions with vigorous local business. On the other hand, individuals with higher education in a network usually have more resources, such as higher incomes to provide temporary accommodations and lending or higher abilities of collecting job information. Therefore, we can expect a positive effect of average education on the migration for regions with stronger local migrant networks. With the data from the China Household Income Project Survey(CHIP2002& CHIP2013), the empirical findings support our hypothesis. We find that the local education endowment indeed has two opposite roles in the migration. First, the increase of local education endowment can promote the development of local enterprises, which will hinder the rural-urban migration. However, the increase of local education can strengthen the positive effect of the migrant’s networks on the migration, so the aggregate effect of local community education on the migration will depend on the development of local development of enterprises and the migrant’s networks. Finally, our results are robust with the support of the instrumental variable method. The policy implications are apparent. For areas with potential to develop the local non-farm economy,local governments should import more investment by strengthening local education; while for other rural areas, cultivating local migrant social networks can enhance the role of local education in promoting the migration.更多还原