【摘要】 变形预测是隧道信息化施工的重要依据,能有效判断隧道围岩的稳定性。为此,在传统组合预测的基础上,提出了基于局部权值和整体权值的改进组合预测方法,该方法既不失传统组合预测的简单实用特点,还能反映样本数据至预测节点长度对组合权重的影响,实现了对传统组合预测的改进;同时,针对局部权值和整体权值的叠加问题,提出了累加叠加和累乘叠加的思路,有效考虑了局部和全局因素对组合权值的影响;最后,将改进后的组合预测模型应用于工程实例,以探讨其可行性及有效性。结果表明:该组合预测模型较传统组合预测模型具有更高的预测精度,预测结果的相对误差均<2%;同时,在局部权值和整体权值的叠加过程中,累乘叠加的效果要略优于累加叠加的效果,累乘叠加具有相对更高的精度和稳定性。研究成果可为铁路隧道的变形预测研究提供一种新的思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 The stability of surrounding rock of tunnel can be effectively identified by deformation prediction,which is a crucial basis for informatized tunnel construction. An improved prediction method combining local weights and global weights is proposed to improve traditional methods. The proposed method is simple,practical,and also reflects the impacts of sample data and node length on combinatorial weights. Meanwhile,ideas of cumulative superposition and multiplicative superposition are put forward in consideration of the influences of local and global factors on the combinatorial weights. Engineering case study verifies that the proposed combinatorial forecasting model is of higher prediction accuracy than traditional forecasting model,with the relative error less than 2%; in addition,multiplicative superposition is of better effect,higher accuracy and stability than cumulative superposition.更多还原