【摘要】 以镇江工业行业为研究对象,选取2001～2016年为研究区间,利用Tapio脱钩指数分析了镇江工业经济增长与碳排放脱钩情况,并进一步通过扩展的Stirpat模型研究了所有权属性、能源消费结构、外商直接投资、城市化水平、政府影响力、富裕程度等因素对碳足迹的影响程度,同时检验了镇江工业碳排放与富裕程度是否符合EKC曲线。实证结果表明,镇江工业经济增长与碳排放脱钩整体较好,但仍有较强的不稳定性; 2014年以来工业碳足迹呈现波动下降趋势,节能减排取得一定成效;所有权属性对碳足迹起到抑制作用,其他因素均不同程度的对碳足迹增加起到正向作用;富裕程度的二次项为正,表明现阶段镇江工业碳排放与工业经济增长并不符合EKC曲线。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper takes Zhenjiang industry as the research object,selects 2001-2016 as the research interval,uses Tapio decoupling index to analyze the decoupling of industrial economic growth and carbon emissions in Zhenjiang,and further studies the impacts of the ownership property,energy consumptionstructure,foreigninvestment,urbanization,governmentinfluence,affluence on carbon footprint,at the same time test whether the level of carbon emissions and wealth is consistent with EKC curve in Zhenjiang.The empirical results show that the industrial economic growth in Zhenjiang is decoupled from carbon emissions overall,but there is still strong instability.Since 2014,the industrial carbon footprint has shown a wavelike downward trend with some achievements made in energy conservation and emission reduction.Ownership attributes to the inhibition,while other factors all play a positive role in increasing the carbon footprint to varying degrees;the quadratic term of affluence is positive,indicating that the carbon emission and industrial economic growth in Zhenjiang do not conform to the EKC curve at this stage.Finally,it puts forward some countermeasures to reduce emissions such as optimizing industrial structure,eliminating backward production capacity and accelerating the development of new energy industry.更多还原