【摘要】 目的评价采用曲线估计结合趋势季节模型预测医疗机构出院人次的精确性。方法采用曲线估计结合趋势季节模型拟合分析三六三医院2009~2015年各季度出院人次,预测2016年各季度出院人次,并计算预测值与实际值的相对误差。结果构建最优二次方回归方程为Y_t=3 006.050 1+202.350 8×t–3.544 4×t~2(决定系数R~2=0.927,P<0.001),结合趋势季节模型预测该院2016年出院人次为23 462人次,与真实值的相对误差为1.79%。结论曲线估计结合趋势季节模型是一种方便、直观的统计方法,在医疗机构出院人次或门急诊人次预测上具有较高的精确性,可以较好地为医院运营管理决策提供参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To explore the predicted precision of discharged patients number using curve estimation combined with trend-season model. Methods Curve estimation and trend-season model were both applied, and the quarterly number of discharged patients of 363 hospital from 2009 to 2015 was collected and analyzed in order to predict discharged patients in 2016. Relative error between predicted value and actual number was also calculated. Results An optimal quadratic regression equation Y_t=3 006.050 1+202.350 8×t–3.544 4×t~2 was established(Coefficient of determination R~2=0.927, P<0.001), and a total of 23 462 discharged patients were predicted based on this equation combined with trend-season model, with a relative error of 1.79% compared to the actual number. Conclusion The curve estimation combined with trend-season model is a convenient and visual tool for predicting analysis. It has a high predicted accuracy in predicting the number of hospital discharged patients or outpatients, which can provide a reference basis for hospital operation and management.更多还原