【摘要】 目的通过分析乌鲁木齐市男男同性性行为人群(MSM)人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)感染危险因素,预测流行趋势,为防治工作提供参考依据。方法利用乌鲁木齐市2009—2016年MSM艾滋病感染率数据,采用logistic回归分析MSM感染HIV的危险因素,应用差分自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型,预测乌鲁木齐市MSM 2017—2019年HIV感染率。结果 MSM与同性发生性行为时使用安全套(OR=0.60,CI:0.46~0.77)及最近1年内做过HIV检测(OR=0.69,CI:0.55~0.86)是感染HIV的保护因素;>40岁的MSM感染HIV的风险是≤30岁的1.63倍(OR=1.63,CI:1.16~2.31),维吾尔族感染HIV的风险是汉族的1.85倍(OR=1.85,CI:1.27~2.68);预测MSM艾滋病感染率的模型为ARIMA,拟合效果较好为ARIMA(3,0,0),利用模型外推预测乌鲁木齐市2017—2019年的MSM HIV感染率分别为10.13%、5.48%、5.64%。结论运用ARIMA(3,0,0)模型模拟和预测MSM HIV感染率在时间序列上的变化趋势较为方便适用,乌鲁木齐市MSM HIV流行形式依然严峻。更多还原

【Abstract】 [Objective] To analyze the risk factors of HIV among MSM in Urumqi,and predict the epidemic trend,so as to provide scientific references for prevention and control work. [Methods]The infection rate data of HIV among MSM in Urumqi from 2009-2016 was used,and the risk factors of HIV infection was analyzed by logistic regression analyze. The ARIMA model was used to predict the infection rate of HIV among MSM in Urumqi from 2017-2019.[Results]Using condom(OR =0.60,CI:0.46-0.77) and having HIV detection in the last years(OR =0.69,CI:0.55-0.86) were the protective factors of HIV. The HIV infection risk of MSM aged >40 years old was 1.63 times than MSM aged ≤30 years old(OR =1.63,CI:1.16-2.31),and Uygur was 1.85 times than the Han(OR =1.85,CI:1.27-2.68). The imitative effect of ARIMA was better,which was ARIMA(3,0,0).The infection rates of HIV in Urumqi from 2017-2019 predicted by ARIMA model were 10.13%, 5.48% and 5.64%.[Conclusion]The ARIMA(3,0,0)model is convenient for predicting the variation trend of HIV infection rate in time series. The HIV prevalence of MSM in Urumqi is still serious.更多还原