【摘要】 在国家系列文件的推动下,各地积极探索采用特许经营、投资补助及财政补贴的方式推行农业废弃物第三方治理模式,如何保障该模式的可持续运营是政府和学者共同关注的问题。本文以可持续运营作为政策补贴效率评价准则,采用入树子系统建模法构建农业废弃物第三方治理模式的系统动力学模型,设置相应的政府补贴政策参数;以江西正和环保工程有限公司罗坊农业废弃物集中治理大型沼气工程为例,通过政策参数调控,对集中供气/沼气发电上网特许价格、有机肥生产/价格补贴、发酵原料成本补贴三项政策的实施效率进行动态仿真分析。结果表明:当前的沼气特许价格能保障企业五年内实现集中供气目标规模;企业发电产能利用率与企业累计收益对沼气发电上网特许价格敏感;要实现有机肥商业化生产必须有合理的有机肥价格补贴。最后,依据政策效率仿真所确定的各政策参数取值参考区间,设计补贴方案,并利用SD仿真实验逐步调整优化补贴方案。更多还原

【Abstract】 Promoted by a series of national policies,agricultural waste management by third parties has been actively explored by the way of franchising,investment grants and financial subsidies in many parts of China.The issue of how to ensure sustainable operation of the mode is becoming a common concern of the government and scholars.This paper assumes the sustainable operation of the mode as a criterion for evaluating government policy efficiency,develops a system dynamics model and sets corresponding subsidy policy parameters to simulate the trend of five variables in organic fertilizer subsidy,concessionary price subsidy for biogas energy utilization(centralized supply as fuel or power generation),and biogas raw materials subsidy policy.The initial data used is collected from Luofang agricultural wastes governance large-scale biogas project of Jiangxi Zheng He Environmental Engineering Co.,LTD.The result shows that the current concession price of biogas can guarantee the target scale of centralized gas supply within five years;the power generation capacity utilization and the accumulative income of the third-party are sensitive to the concession price of biogas power generation network;there must be reasonable subsidies for organic fertilizer prices to realize the commercial production of organic fertilizer.Moreover,based on the results of three policies simulation and the reference range of the policy parameters,three comprehensive optimization scenarios are designed and simulated to investigate the optimal policy parameters.更多还原