【摘要】 在前人研究的基础上,建立了甘肃陇南地区地震灾害人口风险评估指标体系,运用层次分析法对陇南地区地震灾害人口风险进行了评价。研究结果表明:陇南地区地震灾害人口风险程度随烈度的增大而逐步增大。烈度8度下陇南地区开始出现人口高风险区,其面积占陇南地区总面积的2%;烈度9度下有23.5%面积的区域处于地震灾害人口高风险区;烈度10度下有33.4%的区域人口受到高地震灾害风险的威胁。在行政区划上,烈度8度下高风险区域面积最大的区县是宕昌县,约占区县面积的8.18%;烈度9度下高风险区域面积最大的区县是宕昌县,约占区县面积的44.37%;烈度10度下高风险区域面积最大的区县是西和县,约占区县面积的57.3%。利用汶川地震的实例进行了验证,表明建立的模型具有较高的可信度。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper sets up evaluation index system of seismic population risk based on the previous researches and evaluates the seismic population risk in Longnan Region by analytic hierarchy process( AHP). The result indicates that the degree of the seismic population risk in Longnan region enlarges progressively with the increasing of intensity. The highest population risk region begin to appear in the Seismic Intensity 8,which is 2% of the total area of Longnan region; The highest population risk region in the Seismic Intensity 9 is 23. 5% of the total area of the region,and in the Seismic Intensity 10,there is 33. 4% of the total area of Longnan region suffering from the highest earthquake risk. In the administrative division,the maximum area county of highest population risk is Dangchang County,which is 8. 18% of the county area in the Seismic Intensity 8; the maximum area county of highest population risk is also Dangchang County,which is 44. 37% of the county area in the Seismic Intensity 9; the maximum area county of highest population risk is Xihe County,which is 57. 3% of the county area in the Seismic Intensity 10. The established model which was verified by the Wenchuan earthquake has higher reliability.更多还原