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基于遗传算法的人口优化大数据模拟论证研究

Simulation Study of population development based on genetic algorithm

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【作者】 范广哲朱健王莹

【Author】 FAN Guang-zhe;ZHU Jian;WANG Ying;Faculty of Management and Economy,Dalian University of Technology;

【机构】 大连理工大学管理与经济学部

【摘要】 近几十年来,中国的人口形势发生了很大变化。计划生育的实施使中国总和生育率不断下降。但现在用工荒、老龄化危机等问题不断加重,使中国经济、社会可持续发展面临严重危机,我国需要从人口控制走向人口优化,全面提高人口质量。文章首次提出用遗传算法模拟人口发展,通过控制每一代的总和生育率研究人口质量进化过程,从大数据的角度论证了中国目前提出提倡适度生育即全面放开二胎政策有利于人口质量进化。

【Abstract】 In recent decades,China’s population situation has changed a lot. The implementation of family planning makes Chinese total fertility rates continue to decline. But now the shortage of labor shortage,aging crisis and other issues make China’s economic and social sustainable development face serious crisis. China should distract attention from population control to population development and improve the quality of population. In this paper,genetic algorithm is firstly proposed to simulate population development and research the evolution process of population quality by controlling the total fertility rate of each generation. The paper demonstrates in the view of the data that China at present advocates moderate fertility,in other words,the full liberalization of two-child policy is conducive to the evolution of population quality.

【基金】 国家自然科学基金项目“营销沟通对双重社会身份消费者行为的影响研究”(批准号:71272094)
  • 【文献出处】 中国人口·资源与环境 ,China Population,Resources and Environment , 编辑部邮箱 ,2017年S1期
  • 【分类号】C924.2
  • 【被引频次】2
  • 【下载频次】321
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