【摘要】 定量刻画湖泊生态系统结构变化及其对全球变化的线性和非线性响应过程特征,深入揭示湖泊生态系统演变和突变机制是全球变化研究的前沿领域。我国季风区湖泊生态系统长期演变机理与生态安全的研究瞄准这一国际前沿,针对我国季风区湖泊生态系统显著退化、增温导致的湖泊生态系统突变风险加大的态势,以及湖泊生态修复理论依据不足的现状开展工作。将通过现代湖泊调查、古湖沼学手段、多种数理统计方法以及模型模拟手段相结合,拟以生态系统结构变化为核心,研究气候和人类活动双重驱动下,季风区湖泊生态系统的响应,揭示不同时空尺度湖泊生态系统弹性变化和临界转换特征,基于弹性理论评估全球增暖背景下湖泊生态系统服务功能和生态安全。更多还原

【Abstract】 Lake ecosystem can response global change linearly as well as nonlinearly. One key of understanding theseresponses is to reveal the ecosystem structure changes under environment forcing. Thus,quantitative reconstruct ecosystem structure becomes one of the hotspots in research on describing the response of ecosystem to global changes. In consideration of this hotspot and the priority of lake water crisis of the monsoon regions,China under external environment forcing like human activities and global warming,this project is designed to evaluate lakes resilience through the structure metrics.We will employ lake survey,palaeolimnology,statistical analysis,laboratory experiments and computer mod-eling,to study the lake ecosystem structure change under environment forcing. The main purpose of this study is going to find probable metrics from the ecosystem structure indicators to represent the lake’s resilience loss and its relation with critical transition in long-term scale( over past 2000 yrs) as well as short-tem scale( over past 200 yrs). The resilience loss metric will be used to evaluate the lake’s ecosystem services change in history based on palaeolimnological proxies and predict the trajectory of ecosystem dynamics in future scenarios of global warming and human pressures.更多还原