【摘要】 为提高公路边坡抗震能力,本文开展了公路边坡震害风险概率评价研究。选取210国道K359+440处公路边坡为研究对象,采用增量动力分析方法研究了边坡震害易损性,绘制了边坡震害易损性曲线并得到了边坡在一定地震动峰值加速度作用下超越(发生)某等级震害的概率;在边坡所在场地地震动分布特征研究的基础上,采用蒙特卡罗方法计算了边坡未来50年内超越(发生)各等级震害的风险概率。研究结果表明:当地震动峰值加速度达到0.7 g时,边坡超越严重损伤的概率为53.188%,达到0.8 g时,边坡超越严重损伤的概率高达99.086%;未来50年内边坡超越严重损伤的风险概率为29.07%,发生毁坏的风险概率为7.62%。更多还原

【Abstract】 A risk probability assessment method of highway slope seismic disaster was proposed,which can enhance highway slope seismic capacity. K359 + 440 slope of G210 was selected as the research object,Incremental Dynamic Analysis( IDA) was used to carry out the highway slope seismic fragility assessment,the fragility curve was obtained,as well as the damage probabilities under certain Peak Ground Accelerations( PGAs). The risk probabilities of all seismic damage levels of the highway slope in the next 50 years were calculated using Monte Carlo( MC) method based on study of the distribution characteristics of ground motion.The results show that when PGA is 0. 7 g,the probability exceeding severe damage is 53. 188%,when PGA is0. 8 g,the probability is 99. 086%; In the next 50 years,the risk probability exceeding severe damage is 29. 07%,the risk probability of destruction is 7. 62%.更多还原