【摘要】 目的 评价基于Flexible空间扫描统计量的广西壮族自治区学生肺结核流行病学特征,为科学防控广西壮族自治区学校结核病提供依据。方法从传染病报告信息管理系统(NNDRS)收集2014年1月1日至2016年12月31日广西报告的学生肺结核患者,描述性分析其流行病学特征;用期间报告的学生肺结核患者信息建立空间数据库,进行Flexible空间扫描统计量分析,通过与报告学校结核病突发公共卫生事件进行比对,评价其应用价值。结果2014—2016年广西NNDRS共报告学生肺结核4909例,各年度报告发病率分别为17.90/10万(1563/8 731 588)、16.45/10万(1502/9 131 701)和17.45/10万(1844/10 566 235)。男性学生的报告发病率(18.03/10万,2708/15 019 371)高于女性学生(16.41/10万,2201/13 410 153)。Flexible空间扫描统计量分析,侦测到2014—2016年有学生结核病聚集性疫情报告的高发聚集区5个,与5起聚集性学校结核病突发公共卫生事件疫区吻合。结论 Flexible空间扫描统计量可以灵活、精确地侦测到广西学生肺结核高发聚集区,可以用于疫情苗头的甄别和早期预警。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis(TB) among students in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region based on the flexibly shaped spatial scan statistics providing specific references for student TB control and prevention Methods The data of student TB cases in Guangxi were collected from National Notifiable Disease Reported System(NNDRS) from January 1 st 2014 to December 31 st 2016. We performed descriptive analysis to identify epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis among students. We aggregated the reported student TB patients during this period as the spatial data and conducted the flexibly shaped spatial scan to detect the clusters and to matched the location of public health emergency of TB in school which had been reported. Finally,we evaluated the application of flexibly shaped spatial scan statistics. Results The total number of student TB cases collected between 2014 and 2016 from NNDRS was 4909. The incidence rates among student population from January 1 st 2014 to December 31 st 2016 were 17.90/100 000 population(1563/8 731 588),16. 45/100 000 population(1502/9 131 701) and 17. 45/100 000 population(1844/10 566 235) in respective years.The incidence among male student is higher than female students(18. 03/100 000 population(2708/15 019 371) vs16.41/100 000 population(2201/13 410 153)). Five hot spots were detected by flexibly shaped spatial scan between January 1 st 2014 and December 31 st 2016, which were in consistence with the five reported public health emergency of student TB clusters. Conclusion Flexibly shaped spatial scan statistics is flexible and precise for identifying the high TB incidence clusters. It can be applied to identify the upcoming outbreaks as an early warning tool.更多还原