【摘要】 本文运用系统动力学理论构建中国绿色增长系统的动力学模型,通过对经济、资源、环境、生活、政策子系统参数的调控,预测人均绿色GDP、资源环境成本、生态安全指数、环境污染指数、国民幸福指数以及研发效率等变量的动态趋势,模拟得到四种不同的经济增长模式.研究结果表明:经济的快速发展给生态环境产生了巨大压力,环境污染与资源枯竭问题的日益严重将会阻碍经济的可持续发展;通过政策干预与国家宏观调控,优化产业结构,限制高耗能、高污染产业的发展,对资源的生产与使用起到约束作用;方案4:协同发展模式以快速的经济增长速度和较低的经济损失、资源消耗与环境污染代表了快速增长低消耗低污染的发展模式,即绿色的增长模式.更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the system dynamics theory,this paper constructs green growth system dynamics model of China through regulating parameters of the economy,resource,environment,living and policy subsystem,predicts the dynamic changes of green GDP per capita,resources and environment costs,ecological security index,environmental pollution index,gross national happiness,and R&D efficiency,and simulates four development patterns.The results show that:rapid economic development has produced a tremendous pressure to the ecological environment,and the increasingly serious environmental pollution and resource depletion issues would hamper the sustainable development.Policy interventions and national macro-control,industrial structure optimization,energy intensive and highly polluting industries limitation would constrain the production and use of resources.The fourth alternative of coordinated development model realizes the coordination of economy,resources,environment,living and policy.Furthermore,it reflects the growth model with rapid growth,low consumption and little pollution,and provides an ideal model of the green economic growth for China.更多还原