【摘要】 为支撑渔业经济可持续发展、健全水产品市场价格体系、科学配置水产资源,亟需建立有效的水产品价格预测系统来指导产销协调发展。通过利用我国水产大省山东省2011—2016年水产品批发市场水产品的月度价格作为样本,探究如何利用SARIMA模型来预测水产品市场价格,并对2017年进行预测。研究表明,山东省水产品批发市场主要水产品年均价总体呈下跌态势,山东省水产业表现出明显的两面性:一方面是"规模过大,产量优势有余",另一方面是"效率过低,产量优势不足,市场劣势明显,水域环境质量堪忧"。为扭转上述局面,应从根本上转变观念、通过一系列措施有效控制过度养殖,过度捕捞以及拓展消费市场空间,以此促进渔业经济可持续发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to support the sustainable development of the fishery economy,improve the aquatic product market price system,and rationally allocate aquatic resources,it is imperative to establish an effective price prediction system to guide the coordinated development of production and sales of aquatic products. Based on the monthly prices in the wholesale market of aquatic products in Shandong province from 2011 to 2016,this paper discusses how to use the SARIMA model to predict the monthly market prices of aquatic products,and then forecasts the price for 2017. A number of possible effective measures are proposed as references to policymakers to reverse the situation and promote sustainable development.更多还原